You mentioned several factors questioning whether ARM might or might not be a good future investment for Softbank but you neglected to mention Intel.
I realize that Intel has said they are no longer pursuing the mobile market where ARM clearly dominates. But the fact remains that Intel is still building low power SoCs (Quark, Atom).
Do you think Intel is out of the mobile market like they said – and are just pursuing IoT – or do you think Intel is sandbagging and might still pose some competition to ARM in the mobile space?
I ask that in part because it also seems highly suspicious that Microsoft at the same time is stalling on releasing the bridging tools to port Android apps to Windows 10 Mobile.
We all know that Microsoft legacy apps will only run on x86 architecture and Microsoft has just released it first generation of Windows 10 Mobile phones (950 and 950 XL) on octa-core ARM processors.
So Microsoft’s grand mobile strategy to spread the love with Win 10 is effectively out of gas unless it has some plan to bring apps to the currently app-less Windows 10 Mobile environment.
Next generation Atom or Quark?
And comment number two:
Investing in the technologies supporting the IoT as it is presently understood is at best a nebulous scattershot at the future.
Most of the IoT devices – most of the tens of billions of devices – will be nickel and dime, RFID/NFC ‘chirping’ type devices, if Francis DaCosta is right in his recently published book, ‘Rethinking the Internet of Things: A Scalable Approach to Connecting Everything’.
And driverless cars being Mr. Son’s other stated reason for the purchase?
Huh? – again.
I just don’t see a 60X times earnings – or a 43% premium over current share price – to justify his investment.
If it smells like a rat…